Entrepreneurs and the Pitfalls of Chasing Trends
Entrepreneurs love trends.
From AI and Web3 to NFTs, craft beer, oat milk, plant-based meat, and subscription boxes, whatever is exploding on LinkedIn, TikTok, or in the business press this month tends to attract eager entrepreneurs. It’s understandable—seeing a fast-growing business naturally sparks the thought: I could do that.
However, the challenge is that by the time everyone is talking about a trend, it may already be too late to capitalize on it.
Take NFTs as a case in point. In the first half of 2021, NFT sales surged dramatically—from $13.7 million the previous year to approximately $2.5 billion. By the end of 2021, annual sales had reached around $25 billion. Entrepreneurs, investors, and established companies rushed in, attracted by the explosive growth.
But markets shift quickly. By June 2022, monthly sales on OpenSea had plummeted from nearly $5 billion in January to about $700 million. Those who spotted the opportunity early potentially profited, but those who spent over a year building businesses based on NFTs risked arriving just as the hype faded.
This pattern repeats in consumer markets. The craft beer boom saw a surge in breweries, oat milk filled supermarket shelves, and plant-based meat became a hot investment sector spawning numerous competitors.
Eventually, supply catches up with—and often surpasses—demand. For example, the UK had 100 fewer breweries at the start of 2025 than a year earlier, according to the Society of Independent Brewers and Associates. Beyond Meat, a pioneer in plant-based meat, reported an 11.6% revenue decline in the first half of 2026 due to weak demand and rising competition.
That does not mean these ideas were bad. On the contrary, the original concepts were brilliant. What faltered was the wave of businesses that simply tried to replicate success, saying, “I will have some of that.”
Do Not Look for Trends. Look for Change.
There is a critical difference between identifying a trend and understanding why a trend is happening. The latter is far more valuable.
Instead of launching another oat milk brand because it’s popular, ask why consumers are buying oat milk. Is there a long-term shift toward plant-based diets? Are environmental concerns driving choices? Are allergies or lifestyle changes influencing behavior? Are consumers willing to pay a premium for products aligning with their values?
These questions might lead you to entirely different opportunities.
This mindset is where true innovation begins. Successful entrepreneurs don’t just look at current consumer purchases; they anticipate how the world is changing and what people will need tomorrow.
Before investing time and money, consider these five essential questions.
How Big Is the Market?
A fantastic product in a tiny market is still a small business. Understand the number of potential customers, their spending habits, and whether the market is expanding.
Is Your Product Genuinely Different?
Being slightly cheaper or having nicer packaging is not innovation. What have you created that provides a compelling reason for customers to change their behavior?
Even better, what unique assets do you own? Intellectual property, proprietary technology, patents, data, brand reputation, supply-chain expertise, or deep knowledge that others cannot easily replicate all contribute to defensibility.
If your entire business model can be copied next week, someone probably will.
How Are You Going to Reach the Customer?
Entrepreneurs often obsess over products but overlook distribution. You can have the world’s best product sitting unused in a warehouse if you can’t reach customers.
Consider who owns the customer relationship—retailers, distributors, Amazon, social platforms, wholesalers, or direct sales teams—and understand the true cost of customer acquisition through these channels.
Do You Have the Skills to Win?
Spotting an opportunity doesn’t mean you’re the right person to exploit it. Reflect on the unfair advantages you bring—knowledge, relationships, manufacturing expertise, technology, distribution networks, brand building, or capital.
If you lack these, but the market looks attractive, proceed with caution.
How Are You Going to Fund It?
Entrepreneurs often underestimate the capital needed from idea to successful company. Product development, inventory, staffing, marketing, and distribution consume cash long before profitability.
Calculate the true cost of success—not just the cost to launch.
The Followers Rarely Get Paid
Another reason to prefer original ideas is that the biggest rewards usually go to those who create something valuable and defensible, rather than the numerous followers who copy them.
Originators have time to build brands, intellectual property, distribution relationships, expertise, and customer loyalty before competitors arrive.
Followers often enter when competition is fierce, customer acquisition costs rise, and margins shrink—taking similar entrepreneurial risks but often earning much less.
That said, being first does not guarantee success. Sometimes pioneers make costly mistakes others learn from.
Innovation doesn’t mean inventing something entirely new. It could mean fundamentally improving an existing product, introducing a novel business model, using new materials, revolutionizing distribution, or solving a problem far better than others.
Your business must have a reason to exist beyond “someone else seems to be making money doing this.” If you’ve spotted their success, so have thousands of others.
Entrepreneurship is not about predicting what everyone will talk about next year; it’s about understanding what customers will need next year—before it becomes obvious.
So stop asking:
What’s the next big trend?
Start asking:
What’s changing, what problem does that create, and can I solve it better than anybody else?
That is where genuinely interesting businesses come from—and more often than not, where the money is made.
Elite entrepreneurs don’t follow trends. They create the reasons everyone else follows.
Key Takeaways
- By the time a trend is widely covered in the business press, the opportunity has often peaked—as seen with NFTs and the craft beer boom, where late followers bear the costs.
- Rather than copying a trend, ask why it emerged: understanding the underlying consumer shift is far more valuable than replicating the initial successful product.
- Before committing, test your idea against these questions: market size, product differentiation, customer reach, and your skills to win.
- The biggest rewards go to businesses that build defensibility—brand, IP, distribution, and customer loyalty—giving them a head start before competitors arrive.
- Entrepreneurship is about anticipating customer needs before they become obvious, not chasing what everyone will talk about next year.
Source: Here
